what i've spent fifteen years doing in this business and it's taken me almost fourteen to figure it out is i think about the future of wars in the context of everything else
so i tend to specialize on the scene between war and peace the material i'm going to show you is one idea for a book well a lot of ideas it's the one takes me round the world right now interacting with foreign militaries quite
generated in two years of work i did for the secretary of defense thinking about a new national grand strategy for the united states i'm going to present a problem and try to give you an answer
my favorite bonehead concept from the nineteen nineties in the pentagon the theory of anti access area denial asymmetrical strategies why do we call it that because it's got all those
from even meeting an air force willing to fly against ours so that overmatched capability creates problems catastrophic successes the white house calls them
ok the theory of anti access area denial asymmetrical strategies gobbledygook that we sell to congress because if we just told them we can kick anybody 's asses
they wouldn't buy us all the stuff we want so we say area denial anti access asymmetrical strategies and their eyes glaze over
and they say will you build it in my district
a banana peel on the tarmac
we say china it's yours prometheus approach largely a geographic definition focus almost exclusively on the start of conflict we field the first half team in a league that insists on keeping score until the end of the game that's the problem we can run the score up against anybody
they call fourth generation warfare
it instead there is no battle space the u s military cannot access they said we couldn't do afghanistan we did it with ease they said we couldn't do
there is nobody we can't take down the question is what do you do with the power
so there's no trouble accessing battle spaces what we have trouble accessing is the transition space that must naturally follow and creating the peace space that allows us to move on
poor country runs off that ledge does that cartoon thing and then drops
they said to us you know what in that transition space you're mostly hat not enough cattle
we don't think you can pull it off we're not going to give you our seventeen thousand peace keepers for fodder we asked
the russians for forty thousand they said no i was in china in august i said you should have fifty thousand peace keepers in iraq it's your oil not ours
which is the truth it's their oil
we have trouble accessing our outcomes
we lucked out frankly on the selection we face different opponents across these three and it's time to start admitting you can't ask the same nineteen year old to do it all
day in and day out it's just
we have an unparalleled capacity to wage war
we don't do the everything else so well frankly we do it better than anybody and we still suck at it we have a brilliant secretary of war we don't have
i think we have an unparalleled capacity to wage war i call that the leviathan force what we need to build is a force for the everything else i call them system administrators
we argue about it every time we use it argentina just went through it broke a lot of rules they got out on the far end we
it's transparent a certain amount of certainty gives the sense of a non zero outcome we don't have one for processing politically bankrupt states that frankly everybody wants gone like saddam like mugabe like kim jong il
we have extant right now at the beginning of this system is the u n security council as a grand jury what can they do they can indict your ass
they can debate it they can write it on a piece of paper they can put it in an envelope and mail it to you and then say in no uncertain terms
please cut that out
we don't have anything to translate
here 's the deal as soon as i can't find anybody else to air out i leave the scene immediately that's called the powell doctrine
way downstream we have the internationalcriminal court they love to put them on trial they've got milosevic right now
but we use this language from a bygone era
jesus it was dark
you want to do it france france says
what we need downstream is a great power
you get then no looting no military disappearing no arms disappearing no ammo disappearing no muqtada al sadr i'm wrecking his bones no insurgency
and we dicked around for six months and then they turned on us why because they just got fed up
they saw what we did to saddam they said you 're that powerful you can resurrect this country you're america
what we need is an internationalreconstruction fund sebastian mallaby washington post great idea model on the
they're going to decide up front how the money gets spent just like in the imf you vote according to how much money you put in the kitty
i'm talking about regularizing it making it transparent would you like mugabe gone would you like kim jong il who 's killed about two million people would you like him gone
like a better system this is why it matters to the military they've been experiencing
we do desert storm the split starts to emerge between those in the military who see a future they can live with and those who see a future that starts to scare them like the u s submarinecommunity which watches the soviet navy disappear overnight
the military got dragged out into the muck across the nineteen nineties and they developed this very derisive term to describe it military operations other than war i ask you who joins the military to do things other than war
i maintain this is code inside the army for we don't want to do this
they spent the nineteen nineties working the messy scene between globalized parts of the world what i call the core and the
so we were home alone for eight years and what did we do home alone we bought one military and we operated another and it's like the guy who goes to the doctor and says doctor it hurts
doctor says stop doing that you
this brief inside the pentagon in the early nineteen nineties i'd say you 're buying one military and you're operating another and eventually it's going to hurt it's wrong bad pentagon
raise an army when you need it and maintain a navy for day to day connectivity
of war a department of everything else a big stick
a baton stick
can of whup ass
to attack america is to risk blowing up the world we connected national security to international security
that's the scary part the question is how do we reconnect american national security with global security
since is that bifurcation i described
we talked about this going all the way back to the end of the cold war let 's have a department of war and a department of something else
people say hell nine eleven did it for you
now we got a home game and away game
the war in iraq he was a bad guy with multiple priors
i knew we'd kick ass in the war with the leviathan force i knew we'd have a hard time with what followed but i know this organization doesn't change until it experiences failure
this is the hobbesian force
why i travel all over the world talking to foreign militaries what does this mean it means you've got to stop pretending you can do
these two very disparate skill sets with the same nineteen year old switching back morning afternoon evening morning afternoon evening handing out
that force on the left you can train a nineteen year old to do that that force on the right is more like a forty year old cop
you need the experience
what does this mean in terms of operations
that sys admin force is the force that never comes home
does most of your work
you break out that leviathan force only every so often but here 's the promise you make to the american public to your own people to the world
you break out that leviathan force you promise you guarantee
follow on sys admin effort don't plan for the war unless you plan to win the peace
i'm amazed nobody asked her that question when she was confirmed
i call the leviathan force your dad 's military i like them young male unmarriedslightly pissed off
up or out the force on the right in and out
force on the left respects posse comitatus restrictions on the use of force inside the u s the force on the right 's going to obliterate it
the national guard 's going to be the force on the left is never coming under the purview of the internationalcriminal court
admin force has to
one takes down networks one puts them up
wage war here in such a way to facilitate that do we need a bigger budget do we need a draft to pull this off absolutely not
i've been told by the revolution of military affairs crowd for years
but ultimately you're going to civilianize it
so yes it begins inside the pentagon
i have been to the mountain top i can see the future i may not live long enough to get
happen we're going to have a department of something else between war and peace last slide who gets custody of the kids
this is where the marines in the audience get kind of
read max boon this is the history of the marines small wars small arms
marines are like my west highland terrier they get up every morning they want to dig a hole
i don't want my marines handing out aid i want them to be marines
navy strategic subs go this way surface combatants are over there and the news is they may actually be that small
i call it the smart dust navy i tell young officers you may command five hundred ships in your career
bad news is they may not have anybody on them carriers go both ways because they're a swing asset
armor goes this way here 's the dirty secret of the air force you can win by bombing
but you need lots of these guys on the ground to win the peace shinseki was right with the argument
air force strategic airlift goes both ways
bombers fighters
go over here special operations command down at tampa trigger pullers go this way
civil affairs that bastard child comes over here
return to the army the point about the trigger pullers and special operations command no off season these guys are always
drop in do their business disappear see me now don't talk about it later
i was never here
last point intelligence community
the muscle and the defense agencies go this way what should be the cia open analytical open source should come over here the information you need to do this is not secret
it's not secret
great piece in the new yorker about how our echo boomers nineteen to twenty five over in iraq taught each other how to do sys admin work over the internet in chat rooms they said al qaeda could be listening they said well jesus they already know this stuff
take a gift in the left hand these are the sunglasses that don't scare people simple stuff
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