酷兔英语
文章总共2页

界经济需要一个新的战略来实现更快的增长。严重衰退后的经济复苏形势持续令人失望。每一个令人沮丧的经济数据都会加剧人们对当前的经济低迷将延续很长一段时间的担忧。

 

人们越发意识到,当今世界所经历的并非如二战后那样往常的衰退和复苏。这次情况更糟、不同以往、且久治难愈。并且如果没有他方的帮助,任何单个经济体都很难将世界经济带入一个更好的轨道。

 

但对于解决方案各方的观点则没有那么统一。美国经济学家、前美国财政部长萨默斯(Lawarence Summers)和诺贝尔奖获得者、专栏作家克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)主张政府增加基础设施建设开支。美国国会共和党议员们则坚持认为在当下以及今后减少政府借款会刺激企业招聘和投资。

 

德国正试图通过增加出口来弥补国内消费者和企业支出的缩减,并建议南欧国家采取紧缩政策、放松经济管制。英国则正试图通过紧缩措施、宽松货币政策以及英镑贬值来推动出口。

 

日本正大量印钞并压低日圆汇率,同时安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)政府也在试图捋清相互冲突的财政政策举措──增加消费税以降低债务或增加开支以促进增长──并正在缓慢地放松管控。中国承诺将经济增长模式转向更加依靠消费,减少对出口和不必要基础设施投资的依赖,但对于如何以及何时改革却措辞含糊。

 

在很大程度上,主要经济体及其领导人对央行和出口存在过度依赖。

 

在美国、日本、英国以及欧元区,央行通过极低的利率、安抚性的言论和大量印钞购买债券的政策组合来保持经济的持续增长。尽管这些做法仍存在很大争议,但它们始终是避免大萧条(Great Depression)悲剧重演的好办法。

 

但凭货币政策一己之力无法医治阻碍经济增长的"顽疾"。

 

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称:美联储)主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)及其指定继任者耶伦(Janet Yellen)都一再谈到了这一问题,不过没有向外大声呼吁。实际上,他们都明确地使用了货币政策来弥补短视的财政政策,削减今年的开支成了财政政策的重点。欧洲央行(European Central Bank)行长德拉吉(Mario Draghi)则更加着重强调这一问题,呼吁欧元区领导人不要太过注重短期的危机管理,而应更加关注建立一个更稳定、增长更快、就业更多的经济。

 

对于任何一个、尤其是那些承担大量债务的国家,压缩公共和私营部门开支、倾向于汇率贬值并依赖出口的做法是有意义的。

 

但不可能让每个国家都同时这样做;必须有一些国家担当起进口国的角色。有着巨额贸易顺差的国家──德国和中国──需要从债务国增加进口从而令他们能减轻一些负担。当然德国和中国的政客很难采纳这种做法,因为他们也不愿那些出口相关的工作岗位受到威胁,这也情有可原。

 

上述种种,有心无力的货币政策、被误导的财政政策、过度关注于避免短期衰退而对长期增长注意力不足、"改革"停留于嘴上而少有行动、太多国家依赖外国需求来抵消疲软的国内需求──难怪世界经济增长如此缓慢。

 

本周笔者向一位全球经济政策制定的资深专家询问了世界经济如何才能变得更好。他给出了三条建议:

 

一,全球的决策者们需要认识到这不是一个普通的经济周期。政府能够也应该通过支出和减税来抵消私人部门的疲软需求,但他们要意识到这还不够。他们要改变踌躇不前的状态,采取能增强消费者和企业信心的措施,让他们更乐于进行消费和投资──美国要应对长期预算赤字和陷入困境的学校,欧洲应继续着手设立银行业联盟,日本是时候射出安倍经济学的第三只箭,即采取放松管制等政策。

 

二是,发达与发展中经济体间痛苦的多哈回合谈判应尽早结束,相反,发达国家应当寻求在美欧、美亚和欧亚之间签署协定以降低贸易门槛,让本国企业有更多投资动机,并设法令新兴市场妥协。

 

三,大的经济体应当协调实施旨在实现全球经济更好、更加平衡增长的、明智的政策,这一过程或可藉助国际货币基金组织(Internation Monetary Fund)的帮助来实现。比如,有些国家在被告知要紧缩国内开支并加大出口的同时,也需要确信其他国家会扩大进口。作为债务免除的条件,债务国需要让债权国相信一旦压力解除,他们会履行自己所作的改革承诺。

 

这些建议任何一条要做起来都不容易,它们或许甚至都不是最好的选择。但要维持现状的话世界经济未来十年都可能会停滞不前。

The world economy needs a new strategy to generate faster growth. The recovery from the severe recession continues to disappoint. Each discouraging bit of economic data adds to anxiety that we're going to be stuck with lousy growth for a long time.

There is now growing realization that what the world has been through is not the usual post-World War II recession and recovery. It's worse. It's different. It's chronic. And it will be very hard for any one economy to put the world economy on a better trajectory without help from the others.

There is less agreement on the solution. American economists Lawrence Summers, a former Treasury secretary, and Paul Krugman, a Nobel laureate and columnist, prescribe much more government spending on infrastructure. Congressional Republicans argue that reducing government borrowing, now and in the future, will prompt business to hire and invest.

The Germans are trying to compensate for frugal consumers and businesses at home by exporting more, and prescribing austerity and deregulation for Southern Europe. The British are trying belt-tightening, easy money and a depreciation of the pound to boost exports.

The Japanese are printing lots of money and pushing down the yen while Shinzo Abe's government tries to sort out conflicting fiscalpolicy impulses--to raise consumption taxes to bring down debt or increase spending to bolster growth--and are moving slowly to deregulate. The Chinese, meanwhile, vow to rely more on consumer spending and less on exports and unneeded infrastructure investment, but are vague about how and when.

To a substantial degree, major economies and their elected leaders are relying too much on their central banks and too much on exports.

In the U.S., Japan, the U.K. and the euro zone, central banks have kept their economies growing with a mix of very low interest rates, calming words and printing a lot of money to buy bonds. These efforts, while the subject of lively debate, were and continue to be a good way to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression.

But monetarypolicy by itself cannot solve chronic growth problems.

Both Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his designated successor Janet Yellen have said as much, though they haven't shouted it. Indeed, they're explicitly using monetarypolicy to compensate for short-sighted fiscalpolicy that is preoccupied with cutting this year's spending. The European Central Bank's chief, Mario Draghi , has been more emphatic, telling leaders in the euro zone 'to be less absorbed in short-term crisis management, and more focused on building an economy with more stability, more growth and more jobs.'

For any one country, particularly one that is burdened with a lot of debt, it makes sense to tighten public and private domestic belts, welcome a falling currency and look to exports.

But not everyone can do this at the same time; someone has to be the importer. Countries with big trade surpluses--Germany and China--need to buy more from debtor countries so they can reduce some of that burden. This, of course, is a hard to sell to German and Chinese politicians understandably reluctant to endanger all those export-related jobs.

Add this all up: Monetary policy that is struggling to pedal up hill, misguided fiscal policy, too much focus on avoiding short-term slumps and not enough on nurturing long-term growth, more talk about 'reform' than action, too many countries counting on foreign demand to offset weak domestic demand. No wonder the world economy is growing so slowly.

I asked a veteran of global economic policy making this week how the world economy can get to a better place? He had three suggestions:

One, global economic policy makers need to recognize this is no ordinary business cycle. Governments can and should offset weak private-sector demand with spending and tax cuts, but they need to realize that's not enough. They need to stop dithering and do things that could bolster consumer and business confidence so they'll spend and invest more readily--dealing with long-term budget deficits and failing schools in the U.S., getting on with the creation of a banking union in Europe, shooting the third arrow of Abenomics--deregulation and the like--in Japan.

Two, the Doha round of world trade talks among developed and developing economies should be put out of its misery. Instead, he suggested, developed countries should pursue U.S.-Europe, U.S.-Asia and Europe-Asia pacts to lower barriers to trade, to give their own businesses more reason to invest and to jolt emerging markets into compromises.

Three, perhaps helped by the International Monetary Fund, big economies need to give each confidence that each will pursue wise policies in parallel aimed at better and more balanced global growth. Those told to tightendomestic belts and export more, for instance, need to know that others will buy more. In exchange for debt relief, borrowers need to convince creditors that they'll keep their reform promises once the pressure is off.

None of those are easy; they might not even be the best options. But the status quo risks a decade of stagnation. 


文章总共2页