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How many iPhones will Apple sell in China?

  It's tempting to multiply China's 700 million mobile phone users by a percentage pulled out of a hat, and now that China Unicom has announced its deal with Apple (AAPL), everybody seems to be doing it.

  Result: Published estimates of how many iPhones Apple will sell in China next year that range from a low of 1 million to a high of 14 million. Here are the numbers we've seen:

  · UBS analyst Maynard Um: 1 million in fiscal 2010

  · Sanford Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi: 2.9 million by end of 2011

  · Standard & Poor's Clyde Montevirgen: 4 million in calendar 2010

  · Susquehana Financial's Jeffrey Fidicaro: 2 million to 5 million

  · Broadpoint AmTech's Brian Marshall: 5 million to 7 million in 2010

  · iPhonAsia's Dan Butterfield: 14 million in the first year of sales

  Everybody's guessing, of course, since China Unicom hasn't even announced its pricing or its terms. Meanwhile, Susquehana's Fidicaro offers investors this handy formula: For every additional 1 million phones Apple sells next year, you can add 18 to 20 cents to the company's earnings per share.

  The Street currently expects Apple to earn $5.84 a share in fiscal 2009 and $6.79 a share in 2010, according to Thomson Financial.

将中国7亿手机用户数乘以一个假设的百分比是件极具诱惑力的事情,既然中国联通(China Unicom)已经宣布与苹果(Apple)的交易,人们似乎都在这么干。

  其结果是:已公布的对苹果iPhone明年在中国销量的预测从100万部直到1400万部不等。以下是一些预测数字:

  · 瑞银集团(UBS)分析师梅纳德?乌姆(Maynard Um):在2010财年售出100万部

  · 桑弗德?伯恩斯坦(Sanford Bernstein)的托尼·萨科纳吉(Toni Sacconaghi):截至2011年底售出290万部

  · 标准普尔(Standard & Poor)的克莱德·蒙特维根(Clyde Montevirgen):在2010年售出400万部

  · Susquehana Financial的杰佛瑞·斐迪卡诺(Jeffrey Fidicaro):200万到500万部

  · Broadpoint AmTech的布莱恩·马歇尔(Brian Marshall):在2010年售出500万到700万部

  · iPhonAsia的丹·巴特菲尔德(Dan Butterfield):在上市第一年售出1400万部

  当然,所有人都只是猜测,因为中国联通甚至尚未宣布其定价或条件。与此同时,Susquehana的斐迪卡诺向投资者给出了一个方便的公式:苹果明年每多售出100万部手机,其每股收益将增加18到20美分。

  据汤姆森金融公司(Thomson Financial)称,华尔街目前预期苹果2009财年每股收益为5.84美元,而2010年每股收益为6.79美元。
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生词表:
  • tempting [´temptiŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.引诱人的,吸引人的 四级词汇
  • fiscal [´fiskəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.财政的 六级词汇
  • earnings [´ə:niŋz] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.收益;报酬;获得 六级词汇