酷兔英语


John Paulson still believes in gold.


约翰•鲍尔森(John Paulson)仍看好黄金。



That has been a painful stance lately. But Monday finally brought some good news for the well-known hedge-fund manager and other gold bulls.


近来坚持这一立场并非易事。但对这位知名的对冲基金经理和其他看涨黄金的投资者来说,周一终于传来一些好消息。



Gold jumped as high as $1,596 an ounce in electronic trading, after settling up $13.80, or 0.9%, at $1,586.20. Concerns about elections in Italy and big spending cuts in the U.S. helped drive the rally.


周一,黄金结算价上涨13.80美元,至1,586.20美元,涨幅0.9%。随后,在电子交易系统中,金价一度涨至每盎司1,596美元。针对意大利选举以及美国大幅减支的担忧情绪帮助推高了金价。



It was a contrast to the declines seen over the past few months, as an absence of worrisome news helped damp enthusiasm for gold. Prices have fallen 5.3% this year and are down 16% from a record closing high of $1,888.70 set in August 2011. The final three months of 2012 were the metal's worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis.


金价此番上涨与此前数月的跌势形成鲜明对比。由于没有什么令人不安的消息,投资者对黄金的热情减弱,导致金价近来一直下跌。今年以来,金价已经下跌了5.3%,较2011年8月触及的纪录收盘高点1,888.70美元下跌了16%。金价在2012年最后一个季度的表现也是自2008年金融危机以来最糟糕的。



While many investors remain skeptical about the long-term prospects for gold, some large hedge funds are beginning to pay a bit more attention as the price has slid.


尽管许多投资者仍对黄金的长期前景持怀疑态度,一些大型对冲基金出于金价下跌的考量开始进一步关注黄金。



Behind the troubles for gold have been an improving global economy and stock market, which have left investors searching for riskier investments, such as stocks, and selling safe-harbor investments, like gold. Meanwhile, some who bought gold as a hedge against inflation have dumped the metal because consumer prices have been tame. Others say stocks will do at least as well as gold if inflation rises.


黄金表现糟糕的原因是全球经济和股市状况改善,投资者因此开始寻找股票等更高风险的投资,卖出黄金等手头持有的避险投资。与此同时,由于消费者价格水平保持温和,为对冲通货膨胀而买入黄金的投资者也在卖出黄金。其他一些人认为,如果通胀抬头,股市的表现至少会和黄金相当。



The dollar also has held up, which reduces gold's allure. And interest rates have moved higher, making it more costly to hold gold, which earns no return. Gold-mining stocks have been even more disappointing, partly because of management flubs and poor cash flow in recent years.


美元的表现也不俗,从而降低了黄金的吸引力。此外,利率水平上升,增加了持有黄金的成本,因为持有黄金本身并没有回报。黄金相关矿业股票的表现更让人失望,部分原因在于管理层决策失误且近年来现金流表现糟糕。



Despite all the gold negativity, Mr. Paulson's firm, Paulson & Co., remains among the biggest fans and is holding on to much of its gold stash. Paulson continues to hold the largest position in the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund, or GLD, with almost 22 million shares, a position he didn't change last quarter. The firm's large positions in gold miners AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., Detour Gold Corp., NovaGold Resources Inc. and Barrick Gold Corp. were barely changed last quarter, according to filings.


尽管投资黄金面临上述种种不利因素,但鲍尔森的基金公司Paulson & Co.仍旧热衷于黄金,并坚持保留所持大部分黄金。鲍尔森在交易所交易基金SPDR Gold Trust中的头寸仍是最大的,共持有2,200万的份额。他在上个季度没有调整这一头寸。据监管文件显示,上季度,该基金公司在黄金矿业公司AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.、Detour Gold Corp.、NovaGold Resources Inc.和Barrick Gold Corp.中的大量头寸也几乎没有变化。



It isn't clear if Mr. Paulson has adjusted his gold-derivative positions, which are considered large. But Mr. Paulson has told clients that he believes gold will rise over the long term, as global central banks expand their respective money supplies and inflation eventually picks up. He hasn't, however, been making a new push into gold, his investors say.


目前还不清楚鲍尔森是否已经调整了他所持黄金衍生品的头寸,据信他持有的这类头寸规模很大。但鲍尔森已经对客户说,他认为金价长期内将上涨,因为全球央行都在扩大各自的货币供应,通胀率最终会上升。不过,他的投资者说,他还没有追加对黄金的投资。



A few of Mr. Paulson's colleagues on Wall Street agree with this stance. Giant hedge fund Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC added to its position in GLD in the fourth quarter, but the firm has less than 1% of its overall holdings in the ETF, according to FactSet.


鲍尔森在华尔街的一些同行也认同他的立场。FactSet的数据显示,大型对冲基金Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC去年第四季度扩大了其在SPDR Gold Trust中的头寸,不过该基金在此交易所交易基金中的投资仅占其总资产的不到1%。



The bulls are in the clear minority lately, though. Money managers tracked by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission this month cut their bullish bets on gold futures and options to the lowest level in more than four years. Funds slashed their net bullish bets by 32% during the week ended Feb. 19 to about 42,000 contracts, the lowest November 2008.


然而,近来看涨黄金的人士明显属于少数派。美国商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)追踪的投资经理本月在黄金期货和期权上的看涨头寸降至四年多来的最低水平。截至2月19日当周,基金把净看涨头寸削减了32%,至大约42,000张合约,是2008年11月以来的最低水平。



Big-name hedge funds and other traders have turned away from gold in recent months, and some say they are staying away.


主要对冲基金和其他交易员近几个月一直避免投资黄金,一些人说,他们还将远离黄金。



Steve Mandel's Lone Pine Capital LLC dumped its entire position in the GLD ETF, in the fourth quarter, or nearly 2.6 million shares, according to securities filings. Other well-respected hedge funds, including Moore Capital Management LP and Scout Capital Management LLC, also sold all their positions in GLD in the quarter, according to filings. Representatives of the firms declined to comment.


曼德尔(Steve Mandel)管理的对冲基金Lone Pine Capital LLC将其在交易所交易基金SPDR Gold Trust中的近260万份额的头寸全部平仓。据监管文件显示,另外一些受欢迎的对冲基金也在当季卖出了它们在该交易所交易基金中的全部头寸,其中包括摩尔资本管理公司(Moore Capital Management)和Scout Capital Management LLC。上述对冲基金公司的代表不予置评。



'Gold has been a momentum trade and people are getting bored with it,' says the head of a major hedge fund.


一家大型对冲基金的主管说,投资黄金一直是一种顺势交易,大家对它已经感到厌倦。



George Soros's $24 billion Soros Fund Management pulled about $100 million from its holdings in GLD in the fourth quarter, or roughly half of its position. The move, however, didn't reflect a souring on gold, according to people close to the firm, which in the past has used a variety of investments and derivatives to buy and sell gold.


索罗斯(George Soros)规模达240亿美元的基金Soros Fund Management去年第四季度从其SPDR Gold Trust头寸中撤出大约1亿美元,约为全部头寸的一半。据接近该基金的人士说,此举并不是因为黄金前景变得黯淡。该基金过去曾使用各种各样的投资和衍生品来买入和卖出黄金。



GREGORY ZUCKERMAN / MATT DAY