Economists at Harvard University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology have just released what they claim to be the crystal ball of economics: a model for predicting a nation's future growth more accurately" target="_blank" title="ad.准确地；精密地">accurately than any other techniques out there.

'The Atlas of Economic Complexity' ranks 128 nations based on their 'productive knowledge' -- the skills, experience and general know-how that a given population acquires in producing certain goods. Countries with a high score in the report's 'economic complexity index' have acquired years of knowledge in making a variety of products and goods and also have lots of room for growth. Essentially, the more collective knowledge a country has in producing goods, the richer it is -- or will be.

The 364-page report, a study led by Harvard's Ricardo Hausmann and MIT's Cesar A. Hidalgo, is the culmination of nearly five years of research by a team of economists at Harvard's Center for International Development.

'The essential theory ... is that countries grow based on the knowledge of making things,' Mr. Hausmann said in a phone interview. 'It's not years of schooling. It's what are the products that you know how to make. And what drives growth is the difference between how much knowledge you have and how rich you are.'

Thus, nations with extensiveproductive knowledge but relatively" target="_blank" title="ad.比较地；相对地">relatively little wealth haven't met their potential, and will eventually catch up, Mr. Hausmann said. Those countries will experience the most growth through 2020, according to the report.

That bodes well for China, which tops the list of expected growth in per-capita gross domestic product. According to the method outlined in the report, China's growth in GDP per capita will be 4.32% though 2020. India and Thailand are second and third, respectively.

The U.S., however, is ranked 91, with expected growth in per-capita GDP at 2.01%. 'The U.S. is very rich already and has a lot of productive knowledge, but it doesn't have an excess of productive knowledge relative to its income,' Mr. Hausmann said.

The method, when applied to the years 1999-2009, proved to be much more accurate at predicting future growth than any other existing methods, including the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index, according to the report.

Josh Mitchell

• institute [´institju:t] n.学院 vt.建立；设置 (初中英语单词)
• crystal [´kristəl] n.水晶 a.水晶的 (初中英语单词)
• variety [və´raiəti] n.变化；多样(性)；种类 (初中英语单词)
• research [ri´sə:tʃ] n.&vi.调查；探究；研究 (初中英语单词)
• international [,intə´næʃənəl] a.国际的，世界的 (初中英语单词)
• essential [i´senʃəl] a.必需的 n.要素，要点 (初中英语单词)
• interview [´intəvju:] n.&vt.接见；会见；交谈 (初中英语单词)
• extensive [ik´stensiv] a.广阔的；大量的 (初中英语单词)
• productive [prə´dʌktiv] a.生产的；富饶的 (初中英语单词)
• wealth [welθ] n.财富，财产 (初中英语单词)
• domestic [də´mestik] a.家庭的；本国的 (初中英语单词)
• excess [´ekses] n.超过 a.过分的 (初中英语单词)
• relative [´relətiv] a.有关系的 n.亲属 (初中英语单词)
• accurate [´ækjurət] a.准确的；精密的 (初中英语单词)
• harvard [´hɑ:vəd] n.哈佛大学 (高中英语单词)
• relatively [´relətivli] ad.比较地；相对地 (高中英语单词)
• potential [pə´tenʃəl] n.&a.潜在的；可能的 (高中英语单词)
• economics [i:kə´nɔmiks, i:,-] n.经济学 (英语四级单词)
• accurately [´ækjuritli] ad.准确地；精密地 (英语四级单词)
• essentially [i´senʃəli] ad.本质上，基本上 (英语四级单词)
• eventually [i´ventʃuəli] ad.最后，终于 (英语四级单词)
• collective [kə´lektiv] a.集体的 n.集体 (英语六级单词)
• applied [ə´plaid] a.实用的，应用的 (英语六级单词)