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开好车更容易吃罚单吗？

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At a stoplight, a woman in her 20s driving a red Pontiac Grand Am pulls up next to a 50-something man behind the wheel of a black Mercedes SL convertible. Which one of those two is more likely to get a traffic ticket?


在红绿灯前，一位二十多岁的少女急踩刹车，一辆红色庞蒂亚克（Pontiac）格兰丹姆（Grand Am）紧跟一辆黑色奔驰SL软顶敞篷轿车停了下来，驾驶大奔的是一位五十多岁的中年男士。你猜哪位更有可能被开罚单？



The guy in the Mercedes -- especially if he's from out of town.


答案是：开大奔的那位--如果他不是本地人，那么这种可能性就更大了。



If motorists could predict when and why they would be singled out by a police officer to get a traffic ticket, they'd have a lot less aggravation in their lives. A study released this month of which vehicle models get the most tickets -- and some older research on the judgments police officers make when issuing traffic citations -- offer some intriguing clues as to which drivers are most likely to get pulled over.


如果驾车人能够准确预测何时、因何缘故自己有幸被警察挑中吃到罚单，那么情况可能会好很多。因此本月发布的一项新的研究能为驾车人提供一些有趣的线索。该研究关注哪些车型的违章率较高，告诉我们开哪种车的司机更有可能被警察拦下。而此前的一些研究主要关注警察开罚单时的判决依据是什么。



The data suggest that people who buy expensive, high-performance luxury cars want to get what they paid for -- or at least can't resist the temptation to test their car's capabilities when an open road beckons. Younger drivers in flashy SUVs or sporty small cars are still ticket magnets, too.


数据表明，购买价格昂贵性能强劲的豪华车的人总是希望物有所值，或者说他们无法抵御在宽大马路上进行性能测试的诱惑。那些驾驶炫酷的运动型多功能车（SUV）或小型运动型轿车的年轻人也是吃罚单的大户。



But in a sign of how the auto market has changed since the muscle-car era of the 1960s, the new list of the most ticketed 'spirited vehicles' includes just two Detroit names, both now defunct: the Hummer line of big, bold SUVs and the Pontiac Grand Prix sedan, a car that sought to recapture some of that brand's hot-rod legacy.


自上世纪60年代以来，车市不断转型，曾经风靡一时的大马力"肌肉车"（muscle-car）风光不再，所以此次出炉的高危车排行榜只包括了两个来自底特律的品牌，且这两个品牌现在都已停产：一个是车体庞大、线条粗犷的悍马（Hummer）系列SUV，另一个则是庞蒂亚克的格兰瑞斯（Grand Prix）--这款车曾被寄予厚望，希望其能恢复庞蒂亚克品牌的改装车传统。



Quality Planning, a unit of Verisk Analytics, serves the insurance industry by analyzing and verifying the claims motorists make when applying for auto insurance. The company checks into such questions as who is driving the car, how far it is likely to be driven, and where the car is garaged overnight. It also digs into whether motorists are being truthful about their driving records. All of this information and more goes into calculating the insurance premium motorists are charged.


作为全球专业的风险评估和决策分析公司Verisk Analytics旗下的成员，品质规划公司（Quality Planning，以下简称QPC公司）通过分析与核实车主申请车险时所陈述的事实为保险公司提供专业服务。该公司通常会核实如下问题的答案：谁是驾车人？车子可能开到多远？车子在哪里存放过夜？他们也会深入挖掘驾车人的行车记录，以核查是否真实。保险公司在计算应向驾车人收取的保费时，所有上述信息都会被考虑在内。



Bob U'Ren, a Quality Planning senior vice president, says the company combed through data on about two million cars to see which models racked up the most moving violations. The average is 0.2 moving violation per 100,000 miles driven, or one for every 500,000 miles, he says.


据QPC公司高级副总裁尤伦（Bob U'Ren）透露，为了查明哪些品牌的车辆违章行使的记录最多，该公司梳理了大约两百万车辆的相关数据。调查结果显示，一辆车平均行驶十万英里有0.2次违章记录，即每行使五十万英里有一次行车违章记录。



The most ticketed model line of all: Mercedes SL, whose drivers collect four times that many tickets, on average, the Quality Planning research found. The Mercedes SL 550 Roadster has a 382 horsepower, V-8 engine and starts at $102,600.


QPC公司的研究发现，行车违规记录最多的车型是奔驰SL（Mercedes SL）系列，该车车主平均违章率是其他车主的四倍。奔驰SL 550双座敞篷跑车搭载V-8引擎，动力输出为382马力，起始售价为102,600美元。



Two other high-powered Mercedes models -- the 507-horsepower CLS 63 AMG sedan and the CLK 63 AMG coupe -- made the Top 10. Among the others with violation rates well above average: Four small cars aimed at younger drivers, the Scion tC and xB, the Acura Integra and the Volkswagen GTI. No. 2 on the list was the Toyota Camry Solara convertible -- a car favored by middle-aged women, according to the data.


奔驰的另外两款大马力轿车也挤进了前十名：动力输出为507马力的CLS 63 AMG四门轿车以及CLK 63 AMG双门轿车。在违章率明显高出平均水平的其他几款车中，有四款是专门针对年轻人开发的，包括丰田塞恩（Scion）tC 和xB，本田讴歌（Acura）英特格拉（Integra）以及大众（Volkswagen）GTI。屈居亚军的是丰田佳美Solara敞篷跑车。数据显示，该车颇受中年妇女的青睐。



Rounding out the list of what Quality Planning called spirited vehicles were the Hummer line -- the large H3 and the super-sized H2 -- and the Pontiac Grand Prix.


此次登榜的还包括悍马系列SUV，其中包括大型的H3以及超大型的H2，当然还有庞蒂亚克的格兰瑞斯。



On the other end of the spectrum, the list of 'cautious' vehicles is dominated by sedate SUVs, minivans and more sensible cars. The least-ticketed model is the now discontinued Buick Rainer SUV, whose average driver is 61 years old.


另一方面，登上"谨慎行使"榜单的大都是风格稳重的SUV、小型货车以及那些更为实用的汽车。违章率最低的车型是别克（Buick）一款已经停产的SUV--Rainer，该车车主的平均年龄为61岁。



As to why certain combinations of drivers and cars attract the attention of police officers, Mr. U'Ren says his company's mission isn't psychology, and isn't implying the ticketing was faulty. But this list of ticket magnets suggests that high-performance cars -- or vehicles that cultivate a brash image such as the Hummer -- attract drivers who enjoy driving fast, or pushing the envelope in other ways.


至于为何存在某一类司机和座驾的特定组合容易引起警察注意的问题，尤伦说由于他们公司并不进行心理分析，所以上述现象并不能说明警察的判罚有问题。但这张违章率排行榜也说明了那些喜欢开快车或是热衷挑战极限的车主总是喜欢性能强劲的跑车，或是像悍马那样外形张扬的SUV。



The one car that doesn't quite fit this mold is the Scion xB -- a boxy urban mini-wagon with a 158 horsepower, four-cylinder engine. The xB's young drivers -- the average driver is 37 years old -- got tickets at about 2.7 times the average, according to Quality Planning's data.


但凡事都有例外。以塞恩xB为例，这是一款四四方方的城市迷你车，搭载四缸引擎，动力输出仅为158马力。但据QPC的数据显示，该车的违章率却是平均水平的2.7倍。该车车主较为年轻，平均年龄为37岁。



New data from the Highway Loss Data Institute, which tracks information on insurance claims, including theft and accident damage, finds that some of the vehicles that had higher-than-average violation rates also have higher-than-average insurance losses. The Mercedes SL-class has an average ranking from the institute for overall insurance losses, but is worse than average on collision and comprehensive coverage losses. The Mercedes CLS and Scion tC are rated worse than average overall in their vehicle class.


高速路损失数据研究院（Highway Loss Data Institute）是一家专门追踪保险索赔（包括车辆盗窃和事故赔偿）相关信息的非盈利性研究机构。据该机构公布的最新数据显示，违章率高出平均水平的某些车辆，其保险损失通常也高于平均水平。以奔驰SL这一级别的车子为例，这一类车在"总体保险损失"这一指标上的排名居平均水平，但在"碰撞损失"和"保单覆盖损失"这两项指标上则低于平均水平。奔驰CLS和塞恩tC在各自级别的评估中各项指标均低于平均水平。



The Mercedes SL's No. 1 ranking on the list of most-ticketed cars may seem surprising, given the mature, highly successful people who own them. Quality Planning puts the average age of an SL driver at 53. Mercedes-Benz says they're more likely 57 -- and eight of 10 are men.


奔驰SL位列高危车排行榜的榜首也许很令人惊讶，因为该车车主通常是风格稳重的成功人士。 QPC公司的数据显示该车车主的平均年龄为53岁。但梅赛德斯--奔驰（Mercedes-Benz）公司则估计他们的平均年龄更有可能是57岁，且80％的车主为男性。



But stereotypes about age-appropriate behavior are shattered every day as baby boomers age. With so few Mercedes SL models on the road, maybe police officers just want a closer look.


随着婴儿潮一代年纪渐长，那种认为年龄和驾驶行为应相互适应的老旧观念也完全不适用了。考虑到路上行使的奔驰SL并不多，或许警察只是出于好奇，想仔细看看这款车，不得已之下才开出了罚单。



According to separate -- and quite different research -- by two George Mason University economists, 'spirited' drivers would do well to push the limit close to where they live. They studiedtraffic citations issued in Massachusetts and concluded that out-of-towners caught speeding were more likely to get a ticket -- and a higher proposed fine -- than people who lived in town. Moreover, cities with budget shortfalls tended to hand out more, and heftier, traffic fines.


据乔治•梅森大学（George Mason University）两位经济学家各自展开的独立研究显示，那些"生气勃勃"的驾车人在所居住的地区总是想试探交警判罚的底线。他们研究了麻塞诸塞州的交警开出的交通罚单，结果发现相比本地人，外地人更有可能因超速行使被开罚单，所需缴纳的罚金也更高。此外，预算短缺的城市往往会要求违章者缴纳数额更多的罚金。



It helps a lot, however, to be a young woman, says one of the economists, Thomas Stratmann. Younger women were nearly 33% less likely to get a ticket than men, according to the data the researchers sampled.


据其中一位经济学家斯达曼（Thomas Stratmann）透露，如果司机是年轻女性，那么她拿到罚单的机率会低很多。根据研究人员的抽样数据显示，相比男性，年轻女性吃罚单的可能性低了近33％。



However, Mr. Stratmann says, once women reach about 75 years old, the advantage disappears.


然而，一旦女性到了75岁，这种性别优势就消失了，斯达曼说。



Joseph B. White


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