Why did China, India and Brazil all emerge so much more rapidly from the global financialcrisis than advanced economies did? In a presentation in Denver to the National Association for Business Economics, Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence, now of New York University, offered several reasons:
中国、印度和巴西摆脱全球金融危机的速度远远快于发达经济体，原因何在？诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、现执教于纽约大学(New York University)的斯宾塞(Michael Spence)在丹佛市作客全美企业经济学协会(National Association for Business Economics)时做了一个演示，列举了多种原因：
* These economies learned bitter lessons in the 1997-98 crisis that afflicted them more than advanced economies.
•1997年到1998年危机对这些经济体的打击远甚于发达经济体，它们从中汲取了深刻的教训。
* They were in 'a good initial position' with relatively low leverage, and thus didn't get hit with the severe 'balance sheet recession' that hit the U.S.
•它们的杠杆率相对低，"起点"较好，因此没有像美国那样承受严重的"资产负债表失衡式衰退"。
•它们没有任何复杂的结构化金融工具。
* They had built up large foreign-exchange reserves.
•它们积累了大量外汇储备。
* Their central banks responded, much as advanced countries' central banks did, with speed and agility to the credit tightening.
•它们的央行针对信贷紧缩采取了迅速而灵活的应对措施，虽然发达国家的央行也做了应对。
* Their economic managers displayed 'a high degree of competence.'
•它们的经济管理者展现了一种"高度胜任力"。
'Is this sustainable? Will they keep growing? I think the answer is a qualified yes,' he said. 'I wouldn't have said that 10 years ago.'
斯宾塞说，这可否持续？它们是否会一直增长下去？我想答案是一个有条件的"是"；10年前我不会这么说。
Rapidly growing economies aren't generating the ideas and technology to propel growth; rather, they're using ideas and technology from advanced countries to catch up.
经济的快速增长并没有生成推动增长的创意和技术，它们实际上是在利用发达国家的创意和技术来实现赶超。
'There is no reason to believe that will stop,' he said, unless emerging markets make the major mistake of walling them off from the rest of the world, as Brazil did around 1975.
斯宾塞说，只要新兴市场不像1975年左右巴西所做的那样犯下与世隔绝的大错，那就没有理由相信它们的增长会停止下来。
Adding to the sustainability of growth in emerging markets are two other factors, he said: One, they are increasingly trading with each other and thus are less dependent on now slow-growing advanced economies; two, they have become rich enough for their consumers to buy the goods they produce. Spence said that emerging markets can sustain rapid growth even if the advanced economies, including the U.S, grow slowly - but not if the U.S. succumbs to recession.
他说，另外两个因素使得新兴市场更加能够持续增长下去，一个因素是它们相互之间的贸易日益增加，因此对目前增长缓慢的发达经济体的依赖越来越少，第二个因素是它们已经足够富裕，国内消费者可以购买本国所产商品。斯宾塞说，即使美国等发达经济体增长缓慢，新兴市场也可以维持高速增长，但如果美国陷入衰退，高增长就无法维持。
'There is partial decoupling, but by no means complete decoupling,' he said.
他说，存在部分脱钩，但无论如何也不是完全脱钩。
But emerging markets have proven to be far more resilient to downturns in the U.S. than used to be the case.
然而事实证明，新兴市场抵御美国经济衰退冲击的能力远远超过当年。
He added that emerging markets have a large stake in discouraging protectionism in the U.S., and 'they know it.'
他还说，抵制美国的保护主义对于新兴市场来说事关重大，而它们也知道这一点。
Continued rapid growth in emerging markets will be a plus for the U.S., but not a big enough plus to pull up U.S. growth, he said. 'We can't compete for that demand right now,' he said, 'not for most of it.'
斯宾塞说，新兴经济体持续高速增长对美国有益，但这点益处还达不到提振美国增长的程度。他说，那些需求我们目前无法争取到，其中多数是无法争取到的。
U.S. companies don't make - at least not in the U.S. - many of the goods that emerging markets are increasingly demanding.
新兴市场需求越来越大的很多产品，美国公司都不生产，至少不在美国生产。
David Wessel
- emerge [i´mə:dʒ]
vi.出现；显露；暴露 (初中英语单词) - financial [fi´nænʃəl] a.金融的，财政的 (初中英语单词)
- advanced [əd´vɑ:nst] a.先进的；高级的 (初中英语单词)
- severe [si´viə] a.严厉的；苛刻的 (初中英语单词)
- complex [´kɔmpleks] a.复杂的 n.综合企业 (初中英语单词)
- sustain [sə´stein] vt.支撑；蒙受；确认 (初中英语单词)
- compete [kəm´pi:t] v.比赛，竞争，对抗 (初中英语单词)
- brazil [brə´zil] n.巴西 (高中英语单词)
- crisis [´kraisis] n.转折点；危机 (高中英语单词)
- learned [´lə:nid] a.有学问的，博学的 (高中英语单词)
- initial [i´niʃəl] a.最初的 n.首字母 (高中英语单词)
- relatively [´relətivli] ad.比较地；相对地 (高中英语单词)
- dependent [di´pendənt] a.依赖的；从属的 (高中英语单词)
- presentation [,prezən´teiʃən] n.介绍；赠送；提出 (英语四级单词)
- denver [´denvə] n.丹佛(市) (英语四级单词)
- economics [i:kə´nɔmiks, i:,-] n.经济学 (英语四级单词)
- economist [i´kɔnəmist] n.经济学家；节俭的人 (英语四级单词)
- increasingly [in´kri:siŋli] ad.日益，愈加 (英语四级单词)
- partial [´pɑ:ʃəl] a.部分的；偏袒的 (英语四级单词)
- propel [prə´pel] vt.推进；推动 (英语六级单词)
京公网安备 11011202003401号
