酷兔英语

黄金价格的大溃败周一早上开始成形,此前,稳步上涨长达10年的黄金市场上周五出现暴跌,交易员因此为金价继续下跌做好了准备。伦敦的一些交易员周日晚间就抵达工作岗位,赶在亚洲的黄金市场开盘之前做好准备,还有一些交易员周一早上四点就位,虽然由于此时交易员人手不足,大多数交易要等到上午八点左右才能进行。


The gold-price rout began taking shape in the early morning hours Monday, after a sharp Friday selloff in a market that had risen steadily for a decade left traders girding for a downdraft.


一名交易员说,在银行和对冲基金的交易柜台,一些人担心会有大量最近购买黄金的投资者出售黄金,而不是继续承担亏损。上周财政困难的塞浦路斯出台了出售黄金的方案,高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)也建议做空黄金,此外,有迹象显示美联储(Federal Reserve)的成员正在考虑减少对金融市场的支持,在此之后,波段交易开始增多。


Some in London began arriving at work Sunday night ahead of the market's Asia opening to prepare for the onslaught, while others arrived as early as 4 a.m. Monday, even though a paucity of traders at this time limits most trading options until about 8 a.m.


然后,这些交易员看到了不断恶化的最新经济数据,中国第一季度的增长数据弱于预期。开市之后,市场迎来了大量交投和更深的下跌,一些投资者为了安全开始买入看跌期权(看跌期权可授予持有者以预先约定的价格出售的权利),这可能也增加了市场的卖盘压力。


At trading desks at banks and hedge funds, some feared that a major capitulation was coming, one trader said, referring to the condition in which recent buyers sell rather than hold on to losing positions. Trading swings picked up following a plan last week for the financially stressed nation of Cyprus to sell gold, a recommendation by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to bet against the metal, and signs that Federal Reserve members were considering easing up on their support for financial markets.


这次下跌让交易员和投资者承受了数十亿美元的损失。上周四到本周一,仅期货市场的跌幅就达93亿美元。


Then the traders saw the latest deteriorating economic data, a softer-than-expected first-quarter growth number from China. Markets opened with furious trading and deeper declines, as some investors sought the safety of puts, options that protect the holder by conferring the right to sell at a prearranged price, which potentially added to selling pressure in the market.


伦敦金属交易所(London Metal Exchange, 简称LME)最大的经纪商之一Marex Spectron的贵金属部门的经理戈维特(David Govett)说,每一次你以为应该到此为止了,但实际上并没有。


The plunge left traders and investors nursing billions of dollars in losses, with the decline in the futures market alone amounting to $9.3 billion between Thursday and Monday.


黄金过去两天13%的跌幅标志着黄金投资的一次可能具有历史意义的逆转,在12年的时间里共上涨了超过500%之后,黄金已经获得了广泛的认可。黄金曾经被大众作为波动性较小、收益较高的投资方式,现在人们则普遍认为,黄金与股票、债券和房地产市场一样,既提供了潜在的回报,同时也存在相当大的风险。周二,金价略有反弹,6月份交割黄金期货合约价格涨26.30美元,至每盎司1,387.40美元,涨幅1.9%。


'Every time you thought, 'That has to be enough,' it wasn't,' said David Govett, manager of the precious-metals department at Marex Spectron, one of the London Metal Exchange's biggest brokers.


一些交易员说,机构投资者卖盘主要集中在上周五,上周五的黄金价格下跌了4%,个人投资者的卖盘集中在周一,周一黄金价格下跌了9.4%。花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)Delta 1交易部门负责人里德(Seb Ridd)说,上周五可以说是一次大规模清算。他提到了大头寸的卖盘以及由止损指令(在价格跌至低于预先确定一个门槛之后卖出的指令)引发的卖盘。


Gold's 13% decline over two days marks a potentially historic reversal for an investment that gained wide acceptance after gains of more than 500% over a dozen years. The metal, after being embraced by the masses as a way to generate outsize returns with less volatility, now joins the stock, bond and real-estate markets as being widely viewed as offering both potential rewards and significant risks. Gold recovered a bit on Tuesday, with the June contract rising $26.30, or 1.9%, to $1,387.40.


由于黄金的交易已基本实现了电子化,因此黄金市场的交易气氛安静但却紧张。对冲基金Atyant Capital 38岁的首席投资组合经理米马尼(Vedant Mimani)早在美国时间周日夜晚亚洲市场开盘前很长时间就开始在他迈阿密的家里查看金价行情。他说,自从2011年第四季度以来,他管理的那只资产8,000万美元的基金就一直看空黄金。


Some traders said institutional selling was concentrated on Friday, when prices dropped 4%, and selling by individual investors on Monday, with a 9.4% tumble. 'Friday was more of a block liquidation,'said Seb Ridd, head of Delta 1 trading at Citigroup Inc., C +3.99% who noted the selling of large positions as well as selling triggered by stop-loss orders, in which shares are unloaded after falling through preset thresholds.


米马尼说,他周末期间担心的是黄金价格将从每盎司1,400美元缓慢下跌至1,200美元,这200美元将在一个月时间内跌去。


With trading nearly all electronic, the atmosphere was quiet but intense. Vedant Mimani, 38 years old, lead portfolio manager at hedge fund Atyant Capital, started checking up on gold prices from his Miami home well before Asian markets opened on Sunday night. Mr. Mimani's $80 million fund has been bearish on gold since the fourth quarter of 2011, he said.


而现实情况却是,当他周一早上7点半在自己的iPhone手机上查看黄金的市场价格时,每盎司黄金的价格已经下跌了超过100美元。


'What I was concerned about over the weekend was that it was just going to be a slow bleed from $1,400 to $1,200, and that $200 drop would take over the course of a month,' he said.


金价在周一的快速下跌意味着,投资者愿意花高价购买以黄金和白银支持的交易所交易基金(ETF)的看跌期权。而购买这种看跌期权正是米马尼所管理那只基金的核心策略。他的基金卖掉了手中所持有的头寸。


Instead, when he checked the market on his iPhone at 7.30 a.m. on Monday, gold prices were down more than $100 a troy ounce.


米马尼说,我没想到金价会下跌得如此之快。


The sheer swiftness of gold's decline on Monday meant that investors were willing to pay a premium for put options on gold and silver-backed exchange-traded funds, a centerpiece of his strategy. His fund sold its holdings.


在两个交易日里,黄金ETF的成交量大幅跃升。散户投资者青睐这种投资品。上周五,世界最大黄金ETF──SPDR Gold Shares的成交量比其日平均水平高出四倍多。周一,该黄金ETF的成交量超过9,000万份,轻松超过了2009年所创7,900万份的以往最高纪录。


'We didn't think it would unravel so quickly,' he said.


事后来看,其实上周已经出现了黄金价格要大幅下跌的苗头,美联储(Fed)的会议纪要和高盛有关卖出黄金的建议都是推动金价下跌的因素。一些市场人士原本就已经认为黄金价格涨得太高。


Trading volumes in gold exchange-traded funds, a favorite among individual investors, surged over the two-day swoon. On Friday, shares of the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund, the world's largest gold ETF, turned over at a rate more than five times the daily average; on Monday, more than 90 million shares of the fund changed hands, shattering the previous record of 79 million in 2009.


戈维特等人说,纽约时间上周五前市中段金价跌破每盎司1,530美元时一个关键的时刻到来了。许多交易员将止损指令设置在这一价位,当金价跌至这一价位时他们于是开始卖出黄金以止损。金价随后又迅速跌去了25美元。


In hindsight, the sparks of gold's plunge were flickering last week, with the Fed minutes and the Goldman sell recommendation. Those factors helped weigh on an asset that, in the view of some market participants, had gone too far.


伦敦经纪公司Triland Metals的贵金属部门负责人莫顿(Steve Murton)说,当时出现了一波雪崩似的止损性卖盘,成交量巨大。


Mr. Govett and others said a key moment on Friday was when the price fell through $1,530 midmorning New York time. That was where a lot of traders had 'stop-loss' orders to sell, and sell they did. The price quickly slumped another $25.


亚洲市场周一上午开盘后不久(此时是伦敦时间周日夜间),在中国公布了疲弱的经济数据后市场上再度大量出现黄金卖盘。亚洲买家以往一直对金价起着支撑作用,如果连他们都对黄金不感兴趣了,还有谁会感兴趣呢?


'There was just an avalanche of stop-loss selling,' said Steve Murton, head of precious metals at Triland Metals, a brokerage firm in London. 'The volume was huge.'


米马尼说,在经历这轮黄金价格大幅下跌后,他开始对黄金持较为乐观的态度,对金矿类股尤其如此,因为这些股票的股息收益率目前约为4%。


Soon after markets reopened Monday morning in Asia, which is late Sunday in London, the selling resumed after the soft Chinese economic data. Asian buyers had helped boost gold in the past. If they weren't interested, who would be?


但戈维特说,金价过去那段时间涨得太高了。他说,黄金ETF受到投资者追捧,实物黄金交易网站新吸引了大量散户投资者。戈维特说,黄金市场周一"一片狼藉",但那是长时间以来市场一直在等着要发生的事。


After the whirlwind, Mr. Mimani said he is taking a more bullish view on gold, especially gold mining stocks, because their dividend payouts now offer a yield of about 4%.


CHARLES FORELLE/TATYANA SHUMSKY/CHRISTIAN BERTHELSEN