The stock market hasn't been kind to bulls lately. And the mauling may be set to only get worse.


That at least is the warning from some technical indicators, those chart-based omens that analysts examine to divine the market's direction. The S&P 500-stock index, in particular, is in danger of tripping over a talisman that has boded ill in the past. The index's 15% selloff since late April looks set to push the market's 50-day moving average below its 200-day moving average, in what is known as a 'death cross.'

这至少是部分技术指标发出的警告。技术指标是通过股价走势图表显示出来的征兆,分析师在经过分析后用来预测市场走向。其中,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500-stock index)就有可能撞上一个在过去预示着凶险的兆头。这一指数自4月下旬以来已经下跌15%,很有可能使其50日移动平均线行至200日移动平均线下方,形成一个所谓的"死亡交叉"。

As the label suggests, this tends to be a bearish signal. Its opposite is known as a 'golden cross,' which is a bullish sign. The last death cross formed in late December 2007; the S&P 500 went on to lose more than half of its value.


Such a death cross also has marked every other bear market since 1972, notes Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. And the market's 50-day average is currently less than 1% above this tipping point.

研究公司Yardeni Research总裁亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)指出,这样一种死亡交叉,也是1972年以来其他每一轮熊市的特征。而且,目前市场50日移动平均线离这个临界点的位置只高出不到1%。

The trouble with such technical patterns and formations, which are often derided as a form of hocus-pocus by investors more focused on fundamentals, is that they tend to be a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is especially the case given how many people in markets watch them.


So as the market sells off, short-term averages by definition will fall more quickly than longer-term ones. The bearish signals that result then reinforce the downward trend. In other words, the danger of a death cross is that it puts further pressure on already eroding investorsentiment.


The cross itself isn't always a surefire sell signal. There have been nearly two dozen death crosses over the past four decades, notes Brockhouse Cooper strategist Pierre Lapointe. The S&P 500 has declined by 0.4% on average one month after such a formation. After six months, on the other hand, the market on average had gained nearly 5%.

交叉本身并不一定总是看跌信号。投资咨询机构Brockhouse Cooper策略师拉普安特(Pierre Lapointe)指出,过去四十年已经出现了20个左右的死亡交叉。在出现这种信号过后的一个月,标普500平均下跌0.4%;六个月后,市场又平均涨了接近5%。

But that may be cold comfort if stocks' sharp rebound since early 2009 was a classic bear-market rally. If so, the current selloff is more likely the start of a longer period of weakness, says Andrew Chevariat a technical analyst at BNP Paribas.

但如果说股市自2009年年初以来的反弹属于一种典型的熊市反弹,那么这些情况对投资者就起不到什么安慰作用。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)技术分析师Andrew Chevariat说,果真如此,当前的下跌更有可能是一轮更长期疲软走势的开始。

Whether or not such signals are a guide to the future, they do affectsentiment. And this severetechnicalweakness is the last thing the market needs heading into Friday's vital jobs report.


Kelly Evans
  • lately [´leitli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.近来,不久前 (初中英语单词)
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