Forget the BRICs--it's all about the CIVITS.


The new buzzword among hedge fund managers in London, CIVITS--China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa--are tipped to be the hotspots to watch for growth through the current decade.


The term BRICs, coined by Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jim O'Neill--who's recently been promoted--in 2001 and referring to Brazil, Russia, India and China, has come to be widely used as a way of describing the transfer of economic power to the emerging markets and away from the developed world.

金砖四国是指巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国。这个词是由高盛(Goldman Sachs)的首席经济学家奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)──最近他得到了晋升──于2001年提出来的,它被广泛用于描述经济实力从发达国家向新兴市场的转移。

But the latest acronym only includes China and India from the original BRICs lineup, with Brazil deemed now to be relatively" target="_blank" title="ad.比较地;相对地">relatively well developed, and the love affair with Russia is seen as over.


It's a far cry from the start of the last decade, when Goldman Sachs argued that the combined economies of the BRICs could eclipse the combined economies of the wealthiest countries of the world--including the U.S. and the whole of Europe--by 2050.


China is well on its way, and its inclusion in the CIVITS is more than deserved. Its economyovertake的过去式">overtook Germany in 2007 and then surpassed Japan in July 2010, catapulting it into a league of its own because of its breakneck growth. The U.S. bank now says China will overtake the U.S. by 2027 to become the world's largest economy, while PricewaterhouseCoopers pitches it even earlier, at 2020.


But, while timing is the only difference of opinion over China's potential, India has drawn slightly more mixed views. The world's second-most populous nation suffers from poor infrastructure, volatile disputes with its neighbors and high levels of bureaucracy that hinder its ability to achieve its potential--not insurmountable challenges, but certainly ones to take into account. Goldman Sachs sees India, currently the world's 11th-largest economy, outstripping the U.S. by 2050.


But if opportunities in Brazil are on the wane given its relative self-sufficiency in the agricultural, mining, manufacturing and service sectors, the story in Russia is the opposite.


The world's biggest country holds the largest reserves of mineral and energy resources globally, yet faces a shrinking population and an economy that is struggling to recover after falling off a cliff during the economic downturn.


Earlier Thursday, the International Monetary Fund said the Russian economy faces a big challenge in withdrawing financialstimulus from its economy, with inflationary fears on the rise following the country's worst drought in decades.

周四早些时候,国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)称,俄罗斯经历了几十年来最严重的旱灾之后,人们对通货膨胀的担忧日益严重,在此情况下撤除金融刺激措施对俄罗斯经济而言不啻为一个巨大的挑战。

So if Brazil and Russia are old news, what's behind the inclusion of new entrants to the top picks for emerging markets growth?


On the face of it, South Africa's entry is a little strange. But hedge funds say the country is a proxy for the continent as a whole, which has seen its collective GDP soar to equal roughly Brazil's or Russia's.


Africa's largely a commodities story, with rising demand for minerals and oil driving consumers to pay dearly for its natural riches. South Africa is already the largest energyproducer and consumer on the continent, and a top producer of gold, platinum and palladium.


Indonesia meanwhile is already the largest economy in Southeast Asia and a member of the G-20, and has emerged from the global downturn in better shape than its neighbors. Again, it's a natural resources story, producing and exporting oil, natural gas, tin, copper and gold.


Vietnam meanwhile makes a lot of sense. It's one of the world's fastest growing economies attracting vast foreign investment and a significantagricultural exporter. PWC has said Vietnam could be the fastest growing of the emerging economies by 2025 with a potentialannual growth rate of almost 10% pushing the size of the country's economy to around 70% of the U.K.'s by 2050.


Like Vietnam, Turkey is also one of the fastest growing economies, boasting low inflation and soaring foreign investment following a series of key economic reforms.


So wither the BRICs? Goldman Sachs isn't giving up on them. In a recent update to its data, the bank said the BRICs would exceed the U.S. by 2018 and account for a third of the global economy in purchasing power parity terms, plus 49% of global GDP growth, by 2020.


But it did admit that the stellar performance of BRICs' stocks in the last decade might not be repeated this decade.


The bank said: 'Now that the BRICs story is better known, expectations are higher and the valuation gap is much smaller, the same degree of outperformance seems much less likely, even if the BRICs deliver solid returns.'


Andrea Hotter
  • turkey [´tə:ki] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.火鸡 (初中英语单词)
  • transfer [træns´fə:] 移动到这儿单词发声 v.&n.迁移;调动;转让 (初中英语单词)
  • economy [i´kɔnəmi] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.经济;机制;组织 (初中英语单词)
  • league [li:g] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.同盟;社团 (初中英语单词)
  • slightly [´slaitli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.轻微地;细长的 (初中英语单词)
  • ability [ə´biliti] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.(办事)能力;才干 (初中英语单词)
  • achieve [ə´tʃi:v] 移动到这儿单词发声 vt.完成;达到;获得 (初中英语单词)
  • account [ə´kaunt] 移动到这儿单词发声 vi.说明 vt.认为 n.帐目 (初中英语单词)
  • relative [´relətiv] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.有关系的 n.亲属 (初中英语单词)
  • agricultural [ægri´kʌltʃər(ə)l] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.农业的 (初中英语单词)
  • mineral [´minərəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.矿物 a.矿物的 (初中英语单词)
  • energy [´enədʒi] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.活力,精力;能力 (初中英语单词)
  • international [,intə´næʃənəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.国际的,世界的 (初中英语单词)
  • challenge [´tʃælindʒ] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.&vt.向....挑战;怀疑 (初中英语单词)
  • financial [fi´nænʃəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.金融的,财政的 (初中英语单词)
  • continent [´kɔntinənt] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.大陆,陆地 (初中英语单词)
  • riches [´ritʃiz] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.房地产;丰富 (初中英语单词)
  • meanwhile [´mi:n´wail] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.&ad.其间;同时 (初中英语单词)
  • copper [´kɔpə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.铜 a.铜制的 (初中英语单词)
  • investment [in´vestmənt] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.投资;(时间等)投入 (初中英语单词)
  • annual [´ænjuəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.每年的 n.年刊 (初中英语单词)
  • series [´siəri:z] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.连续;系列;丛书 (初中英语单词)
  • exceed [ik´si:d] 移动到这儿单词发声 v.超(胜)过;凌驾 (初中英语单词)
  • performance [pə´fɔ:məns] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.履行;行为;工作 (初中英语单词)
  • brazil [brə´zil] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.巴西 (高中英语单词)
  • relatively [´relətivli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.比较地;相对地 (高中英语单词)
  • decade [´dekeid] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.十年(间) (高中英语单词)
  • overtake [,əuvə´teik] 移动到这儿单词发声 vt.追上;赶上 (高中英语单词)
  • potential [pə´tenʃəl] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.&a.潜在的;可能的 (高中英语单词)
  • hinder [´hində, ´haində] 移动到这儿单词发声 vt.阻止 a.后面的 (高中英语单词)
  • mining [´mainiŋ] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.采矿;矿业 (高中英语单词)
  • roughly [´rʌfli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.粗糙地;毛糙地 (高中英语单词)
  • producer [prə´dju:sə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.生产者;演出人 (高中英语单词)
  • consumer [kən´sju:mə] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.消费者;用户 (高中英语单词)
  • significant [sig´nifikənt] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.重要的;意义重大的 (高中英语单词)
  • wither [´wiðə] 移动到这儿单词发声 v.(使)枯萎(衰弱) (高中英语单词)
  • repeated [ri´pi:tid] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.反复的;重复的 (高中英语单词)
  • economist [i´kɔnəmist] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.经济学家;节俭的人 (英语四级单词)
  • eclipse [i´klips] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.丧失 vt.食;蒙蔽 (英语四级单词)
  • overtook [,əuvə´tuk] 移动到这儿单词发声 overtake的过去式 (英语四级单词)
  • stimulus [´stimjuləs] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.刺激(物);促进因素 (英语四级单词)
  • drought [draut] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.旱灾;干旱 (英语四级单词)
  • dearly [´diəli] 移动到这儿单词发声 ad.深深地(爱等);昂贵 (英语四级单词)
  • southeast [,sauθ´i:st] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.&a.东南(方) (英语四级单词)
  • populous [´pɔpjuləs] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.人口稠密的;众多的 (英语六级单词)
  • monetary [´mʌnitəri] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.金融的;货币的 (英语六级单词)
  • collective [kə´lektiv] 移动到这儿单词发声 a.集体的 n.集体 (英语六级单词)
  • platinum [´plætinəm] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.白金 (英语六级单词)
  • valuation [,vælju´eiʃən] 移动到这儿单词发声 n.估价;价值;重要性 (英语六级单词)