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节假日是放松身心、帮扶困难人士、关爱家人和朋友的时候,也是某个好为人师的亲戚在啜饮了蛋奶酒过后主动介绍股市投资经验,然后你报以点头微笑的时候。但好的建议的确可以让职业生涯更上层楼,让人生走上康庄大道。所以《华尔街日报》邀请了一些管理、投资、研究、著述理财的知名人物,来分享他们给过别人或别人给过他们的最佳理财建议,每人仅限一条。


The holidays are a time for relaxing, helping the less fortunate, showering family and friends with love and attention -- and, sometimes, for smiling and nodding through unsolicited stock tips from an overbearing relative who has been sampling the eggnog.


受调查者包括一共为客户和自己赚了数十亿美元的投资者;知名企业的创始人和老板;以及影响世界对股市推动力量之理解的诺贝尔奖获得者。




一位曾经主审金融危机相关案件的知名联邦法官与我们分享了他的想法,一位曾经谈成体育运动史上一些条件最丰厚合同的经纪人,和一位帮助客户离婚后在财务方面恢复元气的顾问,也都分享了他们的想法。


But good advice can make careers and forever change lives for the better. So The Wall Street Journal asked an array of prominent people who manage, invest, study and write about money to share the single best piece of financial advice they ever received -- or gave.


大部分建议在今天都很好采纳。有些反映了常规思维,有些则完全违背常规。并不是每一条建议都与其他建议一致。后文列出了这些受调查者的回复,有一部分为清晰起见做了编辑。




但首先要提醒大家注意,和其他所有建议一样,这些建议也要冷静地掂量掂量──鸡蛋酒最好是一点也别沾。


The respondents included investors who collectively have earned billions of dollars for clients and themselves; founders and owners of businesses that are household names; and Nobel laureates who shaped the world's understanding of the forces that drive the stock market.


罗伯特·席勒(Robert Shiller),2013年诺贝尔经济学奖得主,耶鲁大学(Yale University)教授




我获得的最佳建议,是我在麻省理工学院(MIT)的博士论文导师、后来和我一起写书的弗兰科·莫迪加里亚尼(Franco Modigliani),在20世纪80年代初期非常接近市场底部的时候给我的买入信号。


A leading federal judge who has presided over cases related to the financialcrisis shared his thoughts, as did an agent who has negotiated some of the most lucrative contracts in the history of sports and an adviser who helps clients recover financially after a divorce.


尽管当时的常规学院派思维是投资应当更加分散化,我还是把自己的投资组合几乎百分之百地配置为价值型股票,直到世纪之交、1999年左右的时候才开始大规模地撤出,只是不记得具体是什么时候了。我非常仔细地阅读了他和理查德·科恩(Richard Cohn)1979年发表在《金融分析师期刊》(Financial Analysts Journal)上的论文《通货膨胀、合理估值与市场》(Inflation, Rational Valuation and the Market)。论文的结论是股市被低估了50%。




实际上这个幅度也是低估了。从1982年到2000年,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)涨了大约20倍的样子。这条投资建议还为我创造了另外一个奇迹,因为它启发我写了《股价过度波动能根据其后的股利变化进行解释吗?》(Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?)一文。这篇文章1981年发表在《美国经济评论》(American Economic Review)上,在诺奖"科学背景"(Scientific Background)里面被重点提及。


In most cases, the recommendations are easy to follow today. Some reflectconventional wisdom, while some fly in its face. Not every tidbit is consistent with all the others. The responses, some of which were edited for clarity, appear below.


所以弗兰科的建议不只让我获得了非一般的回报,还帮助我拿到了诺贝尔奖。再也没有比这更好的投资建议了。




斯科特·博拉斯(Scott Boras),职业体育经纪人,Boras Corp.创始人


But first, a word of caution: Like all advice, it should be weighed soberly -- ideally, at a good distance from the eggnog.


我的劳动法教授曾经告诉我:生意和金钱不会产生温情。别人对你的评论,95%都将是负面的。记住,这意味着你的工作做得不错。




威廉·伯恩斯坦(William Bernstein),神经病学家,资产管理公司Efficient Frontier Advisors投资经理


Robert Shiller, Nobel laureate in economics (2013) and professor at Yale University


我获得的最佳理财建议来自弗雷德·施韦德(Fred Schwed)1940年首次出版的经典书籍《客户的游艇在哪里》(Where Are the Customers' Yachts)。施韦德写道:"文学无法完全地传达人生丰富的情感经历,也无法完全传达失去大笔金钱的那种味道。艺术无法向一位不谙世事的女孩传达为人妻为人母的真正感觉。无论是用言语还是用图像,有些事情是无法向处男处女解释清楚的。我在这本书里可能给出的任何描述,甚至都无法大致地形容丢掉你曾经拥有的实实在在的一大笔金钱是什么样的感觉。"




这些话我从来没有忘记。理财绝对不是理论上的操练,你绝对不会像你想象中的那样,在面对投资损失的时候持一种超然事外的态度。


The best advice I ever got was the buy signal from my dissertation adviser at MIT and later co-author, Franco Modigliani, very close to the bottom of the market in the early 1980s.


米歇尔·史密斯(Michelle Smith),Source Financial Advisors首席执行长,富人离婚理财规划专家




我的曾祖母曾经教导我:一定不要放弃给自己赚钱的能力。


I put virtually [all] my portfolio 100% into value stocks then, even though the conventionalacademicwisdom was then that one should be more diversified. I didn't start taking it out substantially until sometime around the turn of the century, around 1999, though I don't remember exactly. I read very carefully his paper with [Richard] Cohn published in the Financial Analysts Journal in 1979, 'Inflation, Rational Valuation and the Market.' It concluded that the stock market was 50% undervalued.


约翰·伯格(John C. Bogle),先锋集团(Vanguard Group)创始人




持有股票的最佳途径是持有一只指数型基金。


Actually, that was an understatement -- from 1982 to 2000 the S&P 500 total-return index went up something like 20-fold. This investment advice created another miracle for me, for it inspired me to write my article 'Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?' published in the [American Economic Review] in 1981 and mentioned prominently in the Scientific Background paper for the Nobel Prize.


比尔·格罗斯(Bill Gross),太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)联席首席投资长




投资者心中的时钟对于进入、退出市场是至关重要的。如果说公鸡打鸣一般是在早上六点钟,那么就会有一些投资者在刚过午夜的时候起床──也就是把市场见底或见顶的时间估计得过早。有些投资者像大学生一样10点或11点才起床──这又太晚了。要学会认识到闹钟一般是什么时候响起,努力让它在早上六点响起。


So Franco's advice not only got me phenomenal returns, it also helped me win the Nobel Prize. You can't get better investment advice than that.


斯科特·亚当斯(Scott Adams),《呆伯特》(Dilbert)创作人,《样样稀松照样赢》(How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big)一书作者




别人给我的最佳理财建议是"先喊个高价再说"。人类不善于弄明白自己的市场价值。最开始做有偿演讲活动的时候,我不知道怎样给自己标价。一位导师让我喊个高得离谱的价格。结果客户毫不犹豫地接受了,还主要提出报销我的差旅费。以后我再也不给自己喊低价了。


Scott Boras, professional sports agent and founder of Boras Corp.


哈尔·史坦布瑞纳(Hal Steinbrenner),纽约扬基队(New York Yankees)联席董事长




父亲一直向我们灌输的一个金钱观念,是坦诚、直白、老实。不要玩弄别人的资金。有些交易将会因此而达成,有些交易将会因此而无法达成。这其实也是指导日常生活的好办法,有好处没坏处。


My labor-law professor once told me: Business and money don't breed warm feelings. Ninety-five percent of what people say about you is going to be negative. And remember, that means that you are doing a good job.


杰德·雷科夫(Jed Rakoff),纽约南区联邦地区法官




年满43岁的时候,我向我的导师、前纽约州州长休·凯里(Hugh Carey)的顾问朱达·格里贝茨(Judah Gribetz)吐露心声:我在考虑谋得一个联邦法官职位。他问我:"你给(三个)女儿上大学准备了多少钱?"我承认不是很多。


William Bernstein, neurologist and investmentmanager at money-management firm Efficient Frontier Advisors


他说:"如果一名法官老是在担心财务问题,那么他是不可能真正独立的。到你存下的钱足够孩子们上完四年大学的时候再申请吧。别忘了,眼下大学学费的上涨速度是(预期)通胀率的两倍!"




我又存了九年时间的钱才实现了这个目标,但在那时候申请成为联邦法官的时候,我知道自己除了干好本职工作之外什么都不用愁。那是我获得的最佳投资建议。


The best financial advice I ever got was from Fred Schwed's classic book, 'Where Are the Customers' Yachts?', first published in 1940. Schwed wrote: 'Like all of life's rich emotional experiences, the full flavor of losing important money cannot be conveyed by literature. Art cannot convey to an inexperienced girl what it is truly like to be a wife and mother. There are certain things that cannot be adequately explained to a virgin either by words or pictures. Nor can any description I might offer here even approximate what it feels like to lose a real chunk of money that you used to own.'


查尔斯·施瓦布(Charles Schwab),嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp.)董事长




一位朋友对我说,查克,你最好是当老板,出去自己开公司吧。


I've never forgotten that. Finance is never, ever, a theoretical exercise; you're never half as detached from portfolio losses as you think you will be.


亚历山德拉·里本萨(Alexandra Lebenthal),资产管理公司Lebenthal Holdings首席执行长




仔细阅读所有报表和章程,不要依靠理财顾问来帮你做这件事。每个人都有责任弄清楚自己投资的是什么。


Michelle Smith, chief executive of Source Financial Advisors and a specialist in financial planning for wealthy people going through divorce


乔·曼苏埃托(Joe Mansueto),金融研究公司晨星(Morningstar)首席执行长




投资者应当像公司老板,而不是像承租人一样思考问题。大多数商人在早上起床的时候都不会问今天该不该把公司卖掉。如果是比萨店的老板,他们不会去想,真正应该拥有的是不是一家鞋店。他们展示出耐心和毅力,努力更好地了解自己的业务,从而能够在最长时间内获得最大化的回报。


My great-grandmother taught me: Don't ever give up your ability to make your own money.


所以说投资者在很多方面都是被股市的波动性给误导了。股票背后企业的价值,根本就不像股票的价格那样瞬息万变。你真的不需要像老鹰一样日复一日地盯着那些变化。




让你有所行动,是很多人的利益所在。顾问和经纪人赚佣金,基金公司希望你把资产拿去给他们管。投资行业的很多力量都是想让人动起来,却没有一种与它们抗衡的力量鼓励你无为而治。但你就是应该无为而治。


John C. Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group


威廉·夏普(William Sharpe),1990年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者,斯坦福大学(Stanford University)金融学荣誉退休教授




我得到过的最佳建议来自在加州大学洛杉矶分校(University of California, Los Angeles)读研究生时候的导师阿门·阿尔钦(Armen Alchian):在思考有关市场的问题的时候,要假定价格是通过买方和卖方的互动确定的,每一方都在努力实现自身利益的最大化。我给别人的最佳建议:在证券市场不要期盼免费午餐;广泛分散化,将费用维持在低水平。


The best way to own stocks is to own an index fund.


萨莉·克拉夫切克(Sallie Krawcheck),女性社交网络85 Broads老板,曾任美国银行(Bank of America)和花旗集团(Citigroup)的高管




别人给过我的最佳理财建议,是不要购买你不理解的理财产品,不要从一个无法解释到让你能够理解的人那里买。想想(庞氏骗局策划人)伯纳德·马多夫(Bernard Madoff):没有谁知道他那稳定的回报是怎么来的,但他们都没有质疑,因为稳定的回报是一件多么好的事呀。


Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pimco


莫里斯·"汉克"·格林伯格(Maurice "Hank" Greenberg),Starr Insurance Holdings董事长,曾任美国国际集团(American International Group)董事长


An investor's inner time clock is crucial to getting in and getting out of markets. If the normal cock-a-doodle-doo of the rooster is at 6 a.m., there will be some investors who wake up at just past midnight -- far too early for timing a market bottom or top. And some who wake up at 10 or 11 a.m. like a college student -- far too late. Learn to recognize when your clock generally goes off, and work on getting it to ring at 6 a.m.


在某个时期获得的建议,并不是你可以永久应用的建议。但我还是会给别人这么一条建议:投资你正在做的事情,对你正在做的事情自己要显示出信心。但要记住,今天要考虑的问题比过去要考虑的问题宽泛得多,比如所做业务涉及的监管问题和政治问题,以及这些问题可能对你的公司或任何公司造成的影响。




理查德·西拉(Richard Sylla),纽约大学(New York University)金融机构与金融市场史教授


Scott Adams, creator of 'Dilbert' and author of 'How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big'


别人给过我的最佳理财建议,也是我给我自己和妻子埃迪丝(Edith)的最佳理财建议。那是在40多年前,当时我是一名年轻的经济学教授,她是一名年轻的科学史教授。我采纳那条建议的依据,是现代金融理论在当时相对较新的进展,以及支持那套理论的经验证据。


The best financial advice I ever got was 'Price yourself high and see what happens.' Humans aren't good at knowing their market value. When I started doing paid speaking engagements I had no idea how to price myself. A mentor told me to quote an absurdly high price. The client accepted it without hesitation and offered to pay my travel expenses as well. I no longer underprice myself.


那条建议是,把一分一厘的大学退休金缴款都存到股市里去。


Hal Steinbrenner, co-chairman of the New York Yankees


当时作为新任教授,我们有资格参加资产管理公司TIAA-CREF的一项退休金计划,学校将按照我们自己的税前缴纳额度配套缴纳。缴纳款项从税前收入里面扣除,一直到退休的时候都将是免税的。退休之后可以提取,提取部分缴纳普通所得税。


The one thing about money that my dad always instilled in us was to just be straightforward, upfront and honest. Don't play games with people's finances. Some deals are going to happen because of that, and some deals aren't. It's a good way to conduct yourself in life in general, really; there are no downsides.


我们可以把这些缴纳金额全部投进固定收益证券或全部投进股市,或者是采用某种介于两者之间的方法。常规思路是各投一半,如果无法忍受股市的波动性的话,就全部投进"回报有保证"的债市。


Jed Rakoff, U.S. District Judge, Southern District of New York


只有傻瓜才会选择100%投进股市,然后任由喜怒无常的华尔街摆布。我们之所以很容易就做出了当傻瓜的决定,是因为在那些盛行家长主义作风的日子里,学校和TIAA-CREF跟我们说,我们得等到退休的时候,大概也就是40年左右之后年满65岁的时候,才可以动用那笔钱。


When I turned 43, I confided in one of my mentors, Judah Gribetz (former counsel to New York Gov. Hugh Carey), that I was thinking of pursuing a federal judgeship. He asked me: 'How much have you put away for your (three) daughters' college education?' I admitted it was not much.


现代金融理论认为,股市长期回报应当高于固定收益产品的回报,因为股市风险更大,人们承担更大风险需要获得补偿。认识到这一点之后,我认为傻但是有道理的事情,是把40年都动不了的资金全部投进股市。




当时(70年代初)道指不到1000点,现在它在16,000点左右。我现在当教授的薪酬已经算不错了,但是等几年过后退休、必须从自己的退休金账户中按最低要求额度提款时,我敢肯定,我的收入将比现在更高。埃迪丝前不久退休,她遇到的情况就是这样。


He said, 'A judge can't be truly independent if he's always worrying about finances. Don't apply until you've saved enough to put all your kids through college for four years. And don't forget that college costs these days increase at twice the (predicted) inflation rate!'


约翰·罗杰斯(John Rogers),芝加哥投资管理公司Ariel Management董事长




我的篮球教练、(普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)1967年到1996年的首席教练)彼得·卡里尔(Pete Carril)说,你必须首先想到队友。没有任何借口去自私地做事,把自己置于优先于队友的位置。这句话在我的经商生涯中起到了至关重要的作用:关注团队和投资客户的最佳利益,而不是我自己的最佳利益。


It took me another nine years to save up to meet this goal, but when I then applied to be a federal judge, I knew I wouldn't have to worry about anything but doing the job. It was the best investment advice I ever received.


想想吧,在任何组织中,不管是在企业还是在非营利组织中,一定要让人知道你优先考虑的是团队,因为那样他们就会想跟你合作,把你当成一个关照他们的人。当他们知道领导者在竭尽全力地帮助周围所有人取得成功,他们就会更加努力。




马克·库班(Mark Cuban),达拉斯小牛队(Dallas Mavericks)老板


Charles Schwab, chairman of Charles Schwab Corp.


先把账还清。解脱债务的束缚,比赚多少都值。


A friend said to me, Chuck, you're better off being an owner. Go out and start your own business.


拉里·斯威德罗(Larry Swedroe),投资顾问公司Buckingham Asset Management研究主管




有人教导我说,致富策略完全不同于守财策略。致富策略一般是用你的人力资本和企业来承担集中化的风险,守财策略则是将风险最小化,尽量分散自己承担的风险,将费用维持在低水平,将税务效率维持在高水平,钱不要花得太多。


Alexandra Lebenthal, chief executive of Lebenthal Holdings, a money-management firm


塞思·克拉曼(Seth Klarman),波士顿对冲基金公司Baupost Group总裁




(生前就职于经纪公司Carr Securities、)2013年去世的好朋友瓦利·卡鲁奇(Wally Carucci)在30年前是我的一个好导师。他送给我一句至理之言:"鸟儿饿了就得喂。"


Read all your statements and prospectuses closely. Don't depend on your adviser to do it for you. Everyone has the responsibility to know what they are investing in.


这句话有两种解释。表面上的意思是"别忘了卖出,一定要记住买进比卖出容易"。但他真正想说的是,流动性是短暂的。瓦利最有名的地方,是他对流动性非常低、交投量非常少的股票的研究。他那句话的深层含义是,当别人想以全价让你抛掉某笔资产时,不要非得坚持等到它涨到最高点。




卡尔·伊坎(Carl Icahn),激进投资者


Joe Mansueto, chief executive of financialresearch firm Morningstar


当朋友和熟人跟你说你是一个天才的时候,在接受他们的观点之前,拿一点时间想想你过去一直是怎么看待他们的观点的。


An investor should think like a business owner, not a renter. Most businesspeople don't get up in the morning and ask whether they should sell their business that day. If they own a pizza shop, they don't think about whether what they really should own is a shoe store instead. They show patience and persistence and try to understand their underlying business better so they can earn the greatest return for the longest period of time.


简·门迪罗(Jane Mendillo),哈佛大学捐赠基金会哈佛管理公司(Harvard Management Co.)首席执行长




"着眼于长远"是别人给过我的最佳建议。如果着眼于长远,你就会看到别人看不到的东西。几乎所有人想的都是接下来一个月、一个季度的事情。曾管理哈佛捐赠基金15年的杰克·梅尔(Jack Meyer)教导我说,当你想到几年甚至几十年后的事情,就会看到其他人可能看不到的创造价值的机会,因此会在今天做出不同的判断。


So investors are in many ways misled by stock-market volatility. The values of the underlying businesses just don't change as quickly as stock prices do. You really don't have to watch those changes hawklike day after day.


Liz Moyer / Jason Zweig / Ryan Wallerson / Liam Pleven / Leslie Scism / Kirsten Grind / David Benoit

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