酷兔英语


With Italian bond yields surging higher, analysts said Italy is at the brink of being unable to afford to borrow in the public markets.


随着意大利国债收益率大幅飙升,分析人士说,意大利目前处于无法在公开市场上举债的边缘。



Less than two weeks after European leaders unveiled an agreement that was designed to bolster confidence in the region, the yield on Italy's 10-year debt drew close to the 7% mark, a line in the sand of both practical and psychological importance to the market.


在欧洲领导人公开了旨在提振欧洲市场信心的协议不到两周后,意大利10年期国债收益率就逼近7%这个无论从现实角度还是心理层面都对市场有着重要意义的关卡。



Psychologically, 7% has become a beacon due to the fact that Greece, Portugal and Ireland each sought bailouts soon after their debt reached these levels. While analysts said it is too simplistic to say that Italy will be forced to ask for support if its 10-year debt yields 7%, they said the recent selloff is taking the country to the tipping point.


从心理上来说,7%已经成为一个标志性收益率,因为希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰都是在国债收益率达到这个水平后不久便纷纷寻求外部救助。分析人士说,如果意大利国债收益率达到7%就说它将被迫要求支持,这样做未免过于简单,但他们说,意大利国债最近的抛售情况正让这个国家面临转折点。



'I don't know if 7% is the upper limit, or if it's 6.9% or 7.25%, but I do know [Italy] can't go on for very long having these kinds of bond yields,' said Gabriel Stein, director at Lombard Street Research in London.


伦敦研究公司Lombard Street Research主管斯坦因(Gabriel Stein)说,我不知道上限是7%,还是6.9%或7.25%,但我确实知道,意大利在国债收益率如此之高的情况下,是坚持不了太长时间的。



In a practical sense, yields at these levels could force traders to post more collateral when borrowing against Italian bonds, because they are perceived as more risky. That potentially makes Italian bonds less attractive for banks, which historically have been among the biggest buyers of European government debt. This creates a vicious circle, in which higher yields lead to more selling, which in turn scares off buyers.


从现实角度看,如此高的收益率可能会迫使交易员在拿意大利国债举债时,不得不提供更多担保,因为人们认为意大利国债的风险加剧。这可能会让意大利国债对银行的吸引力下降。银行历来是欧洲政府债券最大的买家之一。这会出现一个恶性循环,即国债收益率上升会导致更多抛售行为,进而吓退买家。



And with 1.9 trillion in debt ($2.62 trillion) and 200 billion of debt coming due next year, Italy can ill afford to see rates remain at these high levels.


意大利负债高达1.9万亿欧元(合2.62万亿美元),其中2,000亿欧元债务明年到期。在这种情况下,意大利是无法承受如此之高的国债收益率的。



Analysts said European officials will be hard-pressed to reverse the selling without a concrete plan to support Italy. Such a plan would need to be in the magnitude of the European Central Bank committing unlimited resources to guaranteeing member countries' debt, they said.


分析人士说,若没有一个支持意大利的具体计划,欧洲官员将很难扭转抛售意大利国债的局面。他们说,此类计划应由欧洲央行(European Central Bank)制定,承诺拨付大量资源,为成员国债务提供担保。



Yields on Italian debt have been rising steadily, with prices falling, for weeks, but Monday's selloff was particularly steep, according to Tradeweb data. The yield on the 10-year note jumped to 6.56% from 6.31% on Friday. That is up from 5.91% two weeks ago and 5.5% at the end of September. Bond yields move inversely to prices.


Tradeweb的数据显示,价格不断下跌的意大利国债连续数周收益率一直平稳上升,但周一突然出现了特别大规模的抛售。意大利10年期国债收益率从上周五的6.13%大幅上扬至6.56%,而两周前与9月底的收益率分别是5.91%和5.5%。债券收益率与价格走势成反比。



The picture is even worse for Italy judged by the Italian bond due in March 2022. The yield on that issue hit 6.88% Monday, up from 5.29% when it was sold at the end of August.


根据将于2022年3月到期的意大利国债判断,意大利的前景更不容乐观。这批国债的收益率周一达到了6.88%,比今年8月底发行时的5.29%有所上升。



Sohail Malik, lead portfolio manager for special situations credit at European Credit Management, estimated Italy is paying about 3.42% on bonds coming due next year. Mr. Malik estimated that if that debt was all rolled over into new 10-year debt at 7%, it would create an extra 43 billion of interest costs over the life of the debt.


投资管理公司欧洲信贷管理公司(European Credit Management)特殊情况信贷首席投资组合经理马利克(Sohail Malik)估计,意大利为将于明年到期的国债支付约3.42%的利息。马利克还估计,如果这批国债全部被续期为收益率为7%的10年期新国债,那么在新国债到期前将额外增加430亿欧元的利息成本。



'Imagine doing that for two to three years of maturities at the same level,' Mr. Malik said. 'Unsustainable.'


马利克说,想像一下以同样的收益率水平续期两年期和三年期国债,这是无法持续的。



Market participants said the selling pressure came from long-term investors, such as pension funds, banks and insurers. They said Italian investors, who traditionally have been big buyers of Italian government debt, have stepped back from the market, contributing to the vacuum in which prices have fallen.


市场人士说,抛售压力来自长线投资者,比如退休基金、银行和保险公司。他们说,意大利投资者历来都是意大利国债的大买家,而现在他们已经撤出这一市场,造成资金真空,进而导致价格下跌。



Monday's surge in bond yields widened the gap between Italian and German 10-year bond yields to a euro-zone era record of 4.75 percentage points, up from 4.48 percentage points Friday.


周一意大利国债收益率的飙升,使10年期意大利国债和10年期德国国债之间的息差扩大到4.75个百分点,创下欧元区成立以来的最高纪录。相比之下,上周五时息差为4.48个百分点。



In some ways, the widening of that spread has caused a vicious selling cycle thanks to rules that govern the use of government debt as collateral for borrowing money, otherwise known as repurchase, or repo, agreements.


从一定程度上讲,由于受清算所出台的有关将国债作为贷款抵押品的规定(也即回购协议)的影响,息差的扩大引发了抛售的恶性循环。



Analysts point to the rules set by LCH.Clearnet Group Ltd., the main clearinghouse for repurchase agreements. LCH.Clearnet requires higher collateral for repo trades involving government bonds that yield 4.5% more than a basket of triple-A-rated European sovereign bonds for five consecutive days. Market watchers said Italy is on the cusp of falling into that riskier bucket.


分析人士指的是主要回购协议清算所LCH.Clearnet Group Ltd.制定的规定。按照LCH.Clearnet的要求,如果某国债的收益率连续五个交易日比一篮子评级为AAA的欧洲主权债券收益率高出4.5%,那么进行回购交易时就需要提高作为抵押品的该国债的额度。市场观察人士说,意大利的国债正处于这个更高风险类别的边缘。



LCH.Clearnet didn't respond to requests for comment.


LCH.Clearnet没有回应记者的置评请求。



Should the collateral requirements be triggered, it would make Italian debt less attractive for investors.


如果对抵押品的要求因此被提高,那么意大利国债对投资者的吸引力就会降低。



Tom Lauricella / Matt Wirz / Stephen L. Bernard


Tom Lauricella / Matt Wirz / Stephen L. Bernard