酷兔英语


Gold and silver sure aren't behaving like safe havens.


无疑,黄金和白银目前的表现并不像是避险天堂。



The precious metals are typically seen as safe stores of value in hard times -- inflation, deflation, depression, war, whatever -- but in recent weeks have fallen whenever stocks have fallen, suggesting they aren't such safe havens any more.


人们一般认为金银这两种贵金属是时局艰难期间(如通胀、通缩、经济萧条和战争等)的安全保值手段,但最近几周,只要股市下跌,金银价格就随之走低,这说明它们现在已不再是避险天堂了。



And then you have days like today, where gold and silver are surging along with the stock market and other risky assets.


不过也有例外,如周一,金价和银价随着美股和其它风险资产的价格一起飙升。



Gold at least check was up 2.3% to $1673 an ounce, and silver was up 4.1% to more than $32 an ounce.


金价至少上涨了2.3%,至每盎司1,673美元,银价上涨了4.1%,每盎司超过32美元。



Some of this may have something to do with the direction of the dollar -- when risky assets are rising lately, the dollar tends to be suffering, as is the case today, with the euro up 2.3% against the dollar to nearly $1.37.


这在一定程度上或许与美元的走势有关。最近一段时间,当风险资产价格上涨时,美元一般都会下跌,周一就是如此,欧元兑美元上涨了2.3%,至1欧元兑近1.37美元。



But that doesn't explain most of these moves. Instead, as with crude oil, this seems to be mainly about speculators jumping in.


但这并不能解释金银价格在大多数时间里的走势。相反,跟原油一样,它们的走势似乎主要与投机者的趋之若鹜有关。



Cue up Commerzbank analysts again:


我们再来看看德国商业银行(Commerzbank)的分析师是怎么说的:



Gold has increased to USD 1,650 per troy ounce this morning and is currently moving in line with the commodity and equity markets. This unusual behaviour shows that speculativefinancial investors in the futures market are largely responsible for the current movements in the gold price.


周一上午,金价升至每盎司1,650美元,其走势目前与大宗商品市场和股市保持一致。这种反常行为表明,期货市场上专注金融产品的投机性投资者是金价当前走势的主要原因。



The weekly CFTC data on market positioning are correspondingly important. The week to 4 October also saw a reduction of 1.8 thousand in speculative net long positions for gold to 120,689 contracts - the lowest level since May 2009. This was also the sixth decline in net long positions in the last seven weeks.


美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)关于市场定位的每周数据同样重要。截至10月4日这周,投机性投资者持有的黄金净多头寸期货合约减少了1,800份,至120,689份,这是2009年5月以来的最低水平,同时也是过去七周以来黄金净多头寸的第六次减少。



The scaling back of positions has slowed considerably compared to the previous two weeks. This could indicate that the correction in the futures market is largely completed and that pressure on prices from this side is easing.


较之前的两周,黄金净多头寸的缩减程度已大大放缓,这可能表示期货市场的调整已基本结束,调整带来的价格压力正在缓解。



However, the level of net long positions is still significantly higher than after the correction of autumn 2008. Consequently, there is still a certain amount of correctionpotential, particularly since net long positions can be assumed to have been increased again in the last few days in response to the upwardmovement in the gold price.


不过,目前黄金净多头寸的水平仍远远高于2008年秋季期货市场调整后的水平。因此,仍有某些调整的可能,特别是考虑到可以认为黄金净多头寸在过去几天的再次增多是对金价上涨的回应。



We thereforeanticipate a risk of another downwardmovement in the gold price if the equity markets come under renewed pressure.


因此,如果美国股市再次承压,我们预计金价可能会再次呈下跌趋势。



Mark Gongloff